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SCENARIOS

Reports on the feasibility and costs of decarbonising the UK, Europe and the world—and the costs of not taking action.

It is clear from these reports that there is no need for new nuclear power stations (see also Why we don't need nuclear power) and that there are more than enough renewable sources of energy that are better and cheaper than nuclear power (see also Energy supply and conservation).

The reports are in reverse order of date. Those that provide a particularly thorough and comprehensive analysis are marked with *.

Reports that describe renewable energy scenarios for the UK are marked 'UK'.

Cutting the carbon

  • UK Scotland’s electricity needs – can they be met from renewables without
    recourse to nuclear?     (Nuclear Free Local Authorities Briefing, 2010-07-07). The report suggests that Scotland can produce 100% of its electricity requirements from renewable sources.
  • Zero carbon Britain 2030 (PDF, 5 MB, Centre for Alternative Technology, June 2010). This report examines how the UK can meet its electricity and heating requirements through efficient service provision, while still decreasing carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other emissions.
  • Energy [r]evolution: a sustainable world energy outlook (Greenpeace International,
    European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), Third Edition, June 2010). Describes how world energy supplies can be largely decarbonised by 2050.
  • UK The Offshore Valuation: A valuation of the UK’s offshore renewable energy resource (PDF, 5 MB, The Offshore Valuation Group, May 2010). We assessed the extent of the practical resource through a detailed mapping process based on five electricity generating technologies: wind with fixed and floating foundations; wave; tidal range; and tidal stream. The full practical resource - 2,131 TWh/year - exceeds current UK electricity demand six times over.
  • Roadmap 2050 (European Climate Foundation, with others, in 3 volumes, April 2010). The project finds that in each of the low/zero-carbon pathways, using 40%, 60%, 80% or 100% renewable energy sources, the future cost of electricity is comparable to the future cost of electricity under the current carbon-intensive infrastructure. Roadmap 2050 also shows that with the necessary investments in energy efficiency and Europe’s power network infrastructure, a decarbonised power sector using available technologies can provide the same high level of reliability that consumers enjoy today, in all low/zero carbon pathways. Much of the money would have to be spent early and savings would come later. The benefits of the low-carbon transition far outweigh the challenges. The 40%, 60% and 80% scenarios include nuclear power and CCS. The 100% renewable scenario does not include nuclear power but it does include some use of CCS in heavy industry. Cost estimates appear to overlook the subsidies that are being given to nuclear power. See also Europe's energy in 2050: cutting CO2 by 80% no more expensive than business as usual (Financial Times, 2010-04-13).
  • * Re-thinking 2050: a 100% renewable energy vision for the European Union (European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), April 2010). Shows how Europe could be powered entirely by renewable energy by 2050.
  • A low carbon revolution: the Welsh Assembly Government energy policy statement (PDF, 1.2 MB, March 2010). A statement by the Welsh Assembly Government says that Wales could generate twice its electricity needs from renewable sources of power.
  • * 100% renewable electricity: a roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa (PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC), the Potstdam Institute for Cimate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and the European Climate Forum (ECF), March 2010). As its name suggests, this report shows how Europe and North Africa could meet all of its electricity needs from renewable sources using proven technologies that are available now. The main changes that are required to make this happen are in the economic, legal and regulatory frameworks.
  • * Powering a green planet: sustainable energy, made interactive (Scientific American, November 2009). This interactive presentation introduces "A path to sustainable energy by 2030", an article by Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi in the November 2009 issue of Scientific American. Supplies of wind and solar energy on accessible land dwarf the energy consumed by people around the globe. The authors’ plan calls for 3.8 million large wind turbines, 90,000 solar plants, and numerous geothermal, tidal and rooftop photovoltaic installations worldwide. The cost of generating and transmitting power would be less than the projected cost per kilowatt-hour for fossil fuel and nuclear power. Shortages of a few specialty materials, along with lack of political will, loom as the greatest obstacles. See also Study: shifting the world to 100% clean, renewable energy by 2030 – here are the numbers (Stanford University press release, 2009-10-20, with links to other sources) and Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security (Mark Z. Jacobson, Energy & Environmental Science, 2009, 2, 148–173).
  • Green Energies: 100% Renewables by 2050 (Institute of Science in Society, September 2009).
  • UK The power of Scotland renewed: clean, green energy for the nation's future (PDF, 1.2 MB, Friends of the Earth Scotland, RSPB, World Development Movement, WWF, July 2009). This report shows that it is possible to have a clean, green energy supply in Scotland. By 2030 renewable energy can meet between 60% and 143% of Scotland’s projected annual electricity demand, depending of the level of investment in energy saving and new renewables. The analysis also demonstrates that it is entirely plausible that no large-scale fossil fired generating capacity would remain online by 2030.
  • UK Managing Variability (PDF, 402 KB, Greenpeace, WWF, RSPB, Friends of the Earth, July 2009; Summary, PDF, 443 KB). This is a report by David Milborrow, showing that fluctuations in wind strength can be managed technically and at modest and declining cost, that high proportions of wind power are feasible in the UK's energy mix, and that new technological developments could allow for a steadily increasing use of wind power and the phasing out of conventional carbon based fuels as a backup technology. See also Impact of intermittency: how wind variability could change the shape of British and Irish electricity markets (PDF, 862 KB, Pöyry Energy Consulting, July 2009) and Operating the system beyond 2020 (PDF, 1.1 MB, National Grid, June 2009)..
  • * Global potential for wind-generated electricity (PDF, 1.9 MB, Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya, and Juha Kiviluomac, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Published online before print June 22, 2009, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0904101106). A network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply more than 40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity and more than 5 times total global use of energy in all forms. There is additional potential in offshore wind farms.
  • * Europe's onshore and offshore wind energy potential (PDF, 3.5 MB, European Environment Agency, 2009. The report may also be downloaded from here.). This report calculates that the "economically competitive potential" of wind power in Europe comfortably exceeds projected demands. It appears that, in principle, it could meet all of Europe's energy needs as well.
  • Energy [r[evolution: a sustainable USA energy outlook (PDF, 1.4 MB, Greenpeace International, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), March 2009). This report shows how the U.S. and the world can cut global warming pollution to the levels needed to prevent the worst effects of global warming while also meeting the energy needs of a growing world and phasing out nuclear power.
  • Energy [r]evolution: a sustainable global energy outlook (PDF, 4.7 MB, Greenpeace International, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), October 2008). This edition of Energy [R]evolution Scenarios provides a detailed analysis of the energy efficiency potential and choices in the transport sector.
  • Ten Technologies To Save The Planet, Chris Goodall, London: Green Profile, 2008, ISBN-13: 978-1846688683. This book shows in some detail that technologies such as wind power, solar power in desert regions, good insulation for buildings, and more, are probably sufficient to stabilize and perhaps reduce the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Things like carbon capture and storage (CCS) need development but most of the technologies that are discussed are already proven. What is chiefly lacking is the political will to put them into effect.
  • Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security (PDF, 1.8 MB, Mark Z. Jacobson, Energy & Environmental Science 2009. Also published on the web). This paper reviews and ranks major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution, mortality, and energy security, whilst considering other impacts of those solutions. The article concludes that the use of wind, concentrating solar power (CSP), geothermal, tidal, PV, wave, and hydro to provide electricity for electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles and, by extension, electricity for the residential, industrial, and commercial sectors, will result in the most benefit among the options considered. The combination of these technologies should be advanced as a solution to global warming, air pollution, and energy. Coal-CCS and nuclear offer less benefit thus represent an opportunity cost loss, and the biofuel options provide no certain benefit and the greatest negative impacts.
  • UK Implications of the UK meeting its 2020 renewable energy target (PDF, 734 KB, Pöyry Energy (Oxford) Ltd for WWF-UK and Greenpeace-UK, August 2008). This report concludes that the planned growth in renewables and energy conservation can ensure adequate generating capacity in the UK until at least the mid 2020s (see also Renewables and efficiency could plug UK energy gap (RenewableEnergyWorld.com, 2008-08-08)).
  • * Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: a Roadmap for US Energy Policy, Arjun Makhijani, IEER Press, ISBN 978-1-57143-173-8, 2007. See also an article by Arjun Makhijani, which is based on the book: Nuclear isn't necessary, Nature Reports Climate Change, 2008-10-02. The book is a detailed analysis of how the USA may decarbonise its economy and phase out nuclear power at the same time.
  • Futu[r]e investment: a sustainable investment plan to save the climate (PDF, 4.2 MB, Greenpeace International, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), July 2007). This report shows that investment in renewables pays off quite quickly due to massive savings in fuel costs. In fact, a 'business as usual' mix in the world power generation sector would result in 10 times higher fuel costs, when compared to the additional investment needed to emplement the energy [r]evolution pathway.
  • UK Zero carbon Britain: an alternative energy strategy (PDF, 4.2 MB, Tim Helweg-Larsen, Centre for Alternative Technology, Graduate School of the Environment, July 2007). This report describes how the UK may reduce emissions of CO2 to zero within 20 years using proven technologies and without nuclear power. Although it does not recommend total self-sufficiency in energy for the UK, it shows that that is possible as a point of reference for discussions about energy policy.
  • Climate solutions: WWF's vision for 2050 (PDF, 2.2 MB, WWF, Karl Mallon, Greg Bourne, Richard Mott, May 2007). Shows how deep cuts may be made in the world's CO2 emissions without using nuclear power. There is substantially more potential in concentrating solar power than is recognised in this report.
  • Tackling climate change in the US (American Solar Energy Society, Charles F. Kutscher, Editor, January 2007). Energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies have the potential to provide most, if not all, of the US carbon emissions reductions that will be needed to help limit the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to 450 to 500 ppm. On page 17, it says: "… analysts evaluated the solar resource in the Southwest [of the US] and … found that CSP [concentrating solar power] could provide nearly 7,000 GW of capacity, or about seven times the current total US electric capacity." (emphasis added). Sections of this report about CSP are based on the "Solar task force report" (below).
  • The future of geothermal energy: impact of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) on the United States in the 21st century (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. Download: PDF, 14.4 MB). A comprehensive MIT-led study of the potential for geothermal energy within the United States has found that mining the huge amounts of heat that reside as stored thermal energy in the Earth's hard rock crust could supply a substantial portion of the electricity the United States will need in the future, probably at competitive prices and with minimal environmental impact.
  • Global energy [r]evolution: a blueprint for solving global warming (PDF, 7.8 MB, Greenpeace International, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC), January 2007). This report shows that it is not only economically feasible, but also economically desirable, to cut U.S. CO2 emissions by almost 75% within the next 43 years. These reductions can be achieved without nuclear power, and while virtually ending U.S. dependence on coal. Contrary to popular opinion, a massive uptake of renewable energy and efficiency improvements alone can solve our global warming problem. All that is missing is the right policy support from the President and Congress.
  • UK George Monbiot's book, Heat, describes in some detail how we can decarbonise the economy without using nuclear power. At present, there is no clear solution to the problem of aviation, apart from grounding the majority of planes now in the sky.
  • High Stakes: Designing emissions pathways to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change (Dr Paul Baer with Dr Michael Mastrandrea of the Institute for Public Policy Research, 2006-11-08). This report outlines precisely how large and how fast cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will need to be if we are to have a high chance of avoiding dangerous climate change. It features fresh quantitative analysis of the relationships between global greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and temperature changes.
  • UK A renewable electricity system for the UK: a response to the 2006 energy review (Dr Mark Barrett, Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, University College London, April 2006). This report shows how the UK can meet all its needs for electricity and make deep cuts in CO2 emissions from electricity generation, without building new nuclear power stations.
  • A new energy future (Report from Environment California) This report describes how America can migrate to renewable forms of energy and conservation of energy from its current dependence on fossil fuels. It looks as if it could have been more ambitious.
  • Getting ahead of the curve: corporate strategies that address climate change (PDF, 2.3 MB, Andrew J. Hoffman, prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, October 2006). How companies can develop effective climate strategies and identify climate-related market opportunities.
  • UK Decarbonising the UK: energy for a climate conscious future (PDF, 1.8 MB, Report for the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, October 2006). This report shows that a 60% reduction in the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions, including emissions from aviation, is technically, socially and economically viable.
  • The world in 2050: implications of global growth for carbon emissions and climate change policy (PDF, 681 KB, Report by John Hawksworth for PriceWaterhouseCoopers, September 2006). John Hawksworth says: "Our analysis suggests that there are technologically feasible and relatively low-cost options for controlling carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Estimates suggest that the level of GDP might be reduced by no more than around 2-3% in 2050 if this strategy was followed, equivalent to sacrificing only around a year of economic growth for the sake of reducing carbon emissions in 2050 by around 60% compared to our baseline scenario". This report is the subject of an article in the Guardian: Cost of saving the planet: a year's growth, 2006-09-29.
  • UK Decentralised power: an energy revolution for the 21st century (PDF, 4.7 MB, Greenpeace UK, July 2006). This report shows how the UK can meet its needs for electricity withou using nuclear power.
  • * UK TRANS-CSP report for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservartion and Nuclear Safety (June 2006). This report shows in detail, country by country, how Europe, including the UK, can generate all the electricity it needs, make deep cuts in CO2 emissions, and phase out nuclear power at the same time.
  • UK A bright future: Friends of the Earth’s electricity sector model for 2030 (FoE, March 2006, 162 Kb PDF). Shows how the UK can meet its electricity needs from renewable sources without nuclear power.
  • Solar task force report (PDF, 3.2 MB, Western Governors' Association, January 2006). This report is the basis for sections about CSP in "Tackling climate change in the US" (above).
  • UK Mirage and oasis: energy choices in an age of global warming (PDF, 1.2 MB, New Economics Foundation, June 2005). This report shows that the real cost of nuclear power is much higher than commonly claimed, and that there are more than enough renewable sources of electricity to meet our needs.
  • UK Wind power in the UK (PDF, 1.5 MB, Sustainable Development Commission, May 2005, revised November 2005). Wind power could in principle meet all of the UK's demand for electricity.
  • * MED-CSP report for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservartion and Nuclear Safety (April 2005). This report examines the solar power resources in the Mediterranean region.
  • Links to other relevant reports may be found in the True Cost Clearinghouse from the Science & Environmental Health Network.
  • More links to reports about the feasibility and costs of decarbonising the world's economy may be found in two briefing documents from No2nuclearpower.org.uk:

Business-as-usual is not an option

  • At-a-glance: the Stern Review (BBC report with links to a PDF summary of the report and Sir Nicholas Stern's presentation, 2006-10-30. The full report and other information can be downloaded from the UK Government's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.). The Stern Review is a substantial report by a respected economist, commissioned by the UK Government, showing that the cost of not taking action to tackle climate change is likely to be much higher than the cost of action.
  • Climate change - the costs of inaction (PDF, 262 KB, Report for FoE UK by Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth Stanton, Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, USA, 2006-10-11). This report shows that the costs of not taking action to tackle climate change are likely to be much higher than the costs of taking action.
Last updated: 2010-07-22 (ISO 8601)